Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Peak Oil madness

Coincidently Peak Oil is the big hit since S-11. You will soon see it everywhere, if not already. Besides plenty of books, hundreds of articles, that many websites, gatherings, seminars, conferences, and TV-radio appearances, it has also become a commerce subject. You can already have T-shirts, posters, cups and videos. Soon you will have video games with titles for example “surviving peak oil” or “search for oil.”

Peak oil is becoming a peak oil mania or madness.

Some peak oil analysts cry “yes, we did it!” and some already mean that wolf is already in the house. Some will surely make good fortune out of that, and some others will become very famous by just reading a few books and writing the situation in an elegant way. Therefore there exist now many blind and parrot peak oilist.

And all these irritate me. I am almost getting sick of it and even disgusted.

There remain only a few serious peak oil people, who are still concentrated on the substance. There is an old saying, if you really want to know a person, give him fame, money or power. At least two peak oilists have already all those three.

Am I against peak oil? Absolutely not. I am a firm believer, even though can not be classified as a pessimist. I started having interest in peak oil about 10 years ago by reading the articles of Hubbert. And still reading. Before S-11, there were not that many papers to read daily. Now, it is not possible to read all every day. I am actually reading not that much. Simply because the quality is going down, more commercial or with a hidden agenda, supporting something or nonsense.

There exist some peak oilists who probably have not even read one single Hubbert paper but become famous. There are innumerate people writing about peak oil. There are some who still don’t know the difference between reserves and resources, confusing International Energy Agency with International Energy Association or Energy Information Agency (whatever they are), mixing barrel oil equivalent with barrels, etc etc.

One thing is clear to me. Peak oil is becoming a demon. And in a few years time peak oil mania will peak. Why not now? Because oil prices are going up, which will certainly next year or so will start reducing demand and consequently supply will adjust. This will be interpreted by blind parrot peak oilists as passing the peak. They will happily sing “we said so” song!

They will be wrong. And history will prove it. We will certainly reach the peak, but not this year, not next and not in 5 years.

Until that time let the blind parrots enjoy the artificial glory!


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