Saturday, September 10, 2005

This is not you Yergin

On September 3, Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA and author of "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power" had an article in Wall Street Journal, entitled "The Katrina Krisis"

Probably that piece is his worst article. Such an informed person, such a fame, such an uninformed article, and such a shame!

He says "Post-Katrina, companies will have to continue to weigh relative risks when deciding whether to invest in the ultradeep Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, or the Caspian"

Caspian? I honestly never new that Caspian could be put in the same basket with the others.

Because the maximum depth in Caspian Sea, which is in southern part, offshore Iran is only 3300 feet (1000 m). Northern part is only 16 feet (5m), and average depth in middle Caspian is 650 feet (26m).

Then he says "The 1.5 million barrels of oil production capacity that has been closed down is much less than was lost to the market when Saddam invaded Kuwait"

English is not my mother tounge. But to me what he says is meaningless.

Whose loss is he talking about? Does the US export that amount from that region to the world market? No. Therefore, mentioned 1.5 mb/d is not lost to the world markets. It is a loss to the US market.

On the other hand, in 1990 the US oil production was 9 mb/d, and today is only 7 mb/d. If you divide the lost 1.5 Mb/d production to the US oil production in 1990 and 2005, you will see to the ratio in 2005 is higher than the one in 1990. So, what is his logic?

Moreover, there are ways to represent the numbers - good, bad and ugly. Mr Yergin selected the ugly way. Look at the following fact:

"The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/1/05 is 7,441,566 bbls, which is equivalent to 1.359% of the yearly production of oil in the Golf of Mexico"

do the calculation for the US.

For the most recent and all the history see

Or Yergin in fact intented to give a lot of bread to oil traders!

Mr. Yergin goes on with: "Disruption on the scale of Katrina was never anticipated, neither for the gulf's energy complex nor for the larger tragedy that unfolds."

Really? Does he mean that former Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal was liying when he said "No One Can Say they Didn't See it Coming" ??

Yergin can also be funny sometimes: "boats can't get out to the platforms without diesel fuel"

Sure, no diesel left in the US and there is no way to bring it there. Or was he meaning that diesel was supposed to be brought by FEMA? Then his sentence makes sense.


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home