Sunday, December 11, 2011

US Navy’s Green Fuel Reality and Fantasy

On 17 November 2011, in preparation for the Navy's largest demonstration of shipboard alternative fuel use, NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego tested 20,000 gallons of a 50-50 blend of algal oil (produced by Solazyme) and petroleum F-76 at SDTS, a decommissioned Spruance-class destroyer formerly known as Paul F. Foster (EDD 964).

Later on, the US Navy successfully concluded its final alternative fuel demonstration for 2011 with the December 7-9, 2011 operational tests of the 50/50 algae-derived, hydro-processed algal oil and petroleum F-76 blend in a landing craft air cushion (LCAC) amphibious transport vehicle. LCAC 91 received approximately 5,000 gallons of the 50/50 algal blend. The tests also marked the fastest speed achieved to date by a US Navy surface ship using alternative fuel blends, as LCAC 91 reached 50 knots. The fastest speed demonstrated on the 50/50 algal blend in previous tests was 44.5 knots by the Riverine Command Boat (experimental) (RCB-X).

 
Source: US Navy

Let me remind you that as part of his energy security goals, outlined in March 2011 in the "Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future," President Obama directed the Departments of Agriculture, Energy and Navy to work together to advance a domestic industry capable of producing drop-in biofuel substitutes for diesel and jet fuel. Responding to that challenge, in August 2011, the Secretaries of Agriculture, Energy and Navy announced a partnership to invest up to $510 million during the next three years (in partnership with the private sector) to produce advanced drop-in biofuel to power military and commercial transportation.

While that investment awaits Congressional action, by using the existing authority Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on 5 December 2011 the Defense Logistics Agency signed a contract to purchase 450,000 gallons of advanced drop-in biofuel. The contract is the largest government purchase of biofuel in history, and provides $12 million to suppliers Dynamic Fuels LLC (a joint venture of Tyson Foods, Inc. and Syntroleum Corporation) and Solazyme. Solazyme’s biofuel is algae-based, while Dynamic’s is made from used cooking oil and non-food-grade animal fats.  (this makes $26.6 per gallon).

The fuels will be mixed (50-50 blend) with petroleum-based diesel and aviation fuel to power a Navy carrier group (ships and aircraft) taking part in the Rim of the Pacific exercise, the world’s largest international maritime exercise, scheduled to take place off Hawaii in the summer of 2012 (Navy to Demonstrate Biofuel Use During Exercise). This will be Navy's demonstration of a Green Strike Group.

Andy Rojeski, a management committee member for Dynamic Fuels is reported as saying that  "We believe the federal government's commitment to procure more energy from renewable sources will help make our high performance, environmentally friendly fuel more cost competitive…."  Excuse me! DLA Energy’s FY 2012 Standard Prices (Effective 1 Oct 2011) shows standard price for conventional F76 $3.94 and JP-8 $3.95 per gallon. Is $26.6 cost competitive? We know that some commercial airlines (KLM, Finnair etc) use renewable jet fuel produced by Dynamic Fuels in some of their scheduled flight. I really wonder how much they pay for the fuel.

The Navy’s annual fuel consumption is more than 1.26 billion gallons. So, the purchase of 0.00045 billion gallon is not a significant amount to justify the claim of the Secretary Mabus: “We think that this represents a major step in energy independence for the United States in making the United States Navy a better war-fighting operation.”

I hear more and more claims from the US officials that biofuel use lessens America’s dependence on foreign oil and fossil fuels and increases the nation’s ability to compete in the global energy market.

An opinion letter appeared on the Oil and Gas Journal starts with the following sentence: The administration's latest energy boondoggle is a $510 million cellulose biofuel program to produce fuel for the Department of Defense in the name of national security.” (I didn’t know what boondoggle means. Apparently the term is used for projects that waste time and money.)

In 1819, Henri Braconnot, a French chemist, first discovered how to unlock the sugars from cellulose by treating biomass with sulfuric acid, a process used today. Nearly 200 years later we still try to make it happen at affordable price by throwing millions of dollar subsidies for premature production plants. Let me be clear, I am not against the biofuels industry but in my opinion the DOD’s biased, unjustified and inappropriate approach to biofuels is incorrect.  

Time has come to make a reality check for some of the claims advanced by the green fuels industry and the US military officials. For such a reality check let us have a look what kind of properties these biofuels should have.

·         First, they must meet current JP-8 and F-76 energy density standards
·         Second, they must be drop-in fuel (that no modifications to the engines are required to burn the fuel.)
·         Third, they must meet military demand in terms transportability and stability
·         Fourth, they must be cost competitive
·         Fifth, they must be produced in large quantities preferably in the US.

Number two and partly five is so far satisfied. In my opinion, the most important item in the above given list is Number one. That is to say, any good alternative fuel must minimize both mass and volume for a given energy content. Have you seen a comparison of volumetric and gravimetric energy contents of the alternative fuels (that are tested and purchased by the US military) with the conventional JP-8 and F-76? I haven’t seen yet. Unless I see that their energy density standards are close or better than the conventional petroleum I will remain a skeptical. (I will elaborate this issue in a later post).

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Friday, January 28, 2011

Rand Corporation Torpedoes the Green Fleet

In 2010, the Navy News Service staff published nearly 6,000 stories on Navy.mil. At the end of 2009 the Service complied top 10 stories. Here is top number 10:
10. The Green Navy (Green Fleet, Green Hornet, 2010 Navy Energy Forum): The Navy celebrated Earth Day April 22 by showcasing a flight test of the “Green Hornet,” an F/A-18 Super Hornet multirole fighter jet powered by a biofuel blend. Participants in the 2010 Navy Energy Forum on Oct. 12-13 focused on achieving energy security and reviewed progress toward the energy targets. The U.S. Navy conducted a full power demonstration of a Riverine Command Boat powered by alternative fuel, Oct. 22. 
The year 2010 ended well for Green Navy. Towards the end of January 2011 things were still fine.
On January 24, 2011, Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus posted on The White House Blog a short but informative article titled “Moving the Navy and Marine Corps Off Fossil Fuels.”
He starts with his five ambitious goals of October 2009 to reduce fossil fuel consumption in the Navy and Marine Corps and increase the use of alternative energy to at least 50% of energy requirements no later than 2020.  He list the following reasons for doing so:
• Reducing reliance on foreign sources of energy makes the country more secure.

• Reducing reliance on fossil fuels makes troops safer
• Increasing energy efficiency makes ships, aircraft, and vehicles more tactically capable.
• Increasing alternative energy use helps create an alternative energy market.
• Reducing the energy footprint significantly reduces military carbon footprint.

He also lists progress made towards his goals.He concludes with a statement that the Navy and Marine Corps are leading the nation in adopting new technology to make our country more secure, and helping to create a new energy future.

One day later the bad news hit the fan.

On 24 January 2011, the RAND Corporation submitted a report titled “Alternative Fuels for Military Applications” to Congress. The report made a great publicity I guess because of it stood against biofuel hype of the US military. The most quoted sentence of the report is “the use of alternative fuels offers no direct military benefit over the use of conventional petroleum-derived fuels,” they have little military value, and the U.S. service branches are wasting millions of dollars by trying to replace their consumption of fossil fuels.

A day later, on 25 January 2011, when the New York Times spread the news (Alternative Fuels Don’t Benefit the Military) DoDLive Bloggers Roundtable with Mr. Tom Hicks, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Energy, was discussing the Rand report. ( interview, transcript).

Main headline of his criticism are the following:
 
The Navy, based on its engagement with the alternative fuels industry, has “come to some far different conclusions than this report suggests.”

The report has “factual errors”, was based on “secondhand knowledge,” and is “more of an op-ed than serious research,” contains “misrepresentations.”

“The Rand report erroneously describes the Navy as operating a testing program for a petroleum substitute used to make low-sulfur diesel fuel, whereas the service focuses exclusively on biofuels”

He argues that the report downplays the possibility government and industry would succeed in making such fuels practical. To him the American military wields sufficient purchasing power to sometimes drive market realities, increasing the chances of developing new fuels in sufficient quantities at the right price. Though the military represents only 2% of the U.S. petroleum market, the services would likely drive market trends given the anemic finances of America’s largest oil user—the commercial aviation industry.

This ambition might be reasonable but his claim “the Navy intends to soon drive down the price of fuel to a dollar per gallon” is unreasonable. His reiteration of the usual line “new energy would allow America to regain its energy independence while stopping the transfer of wealth to oil-rich countries sometimes hostile to U.S. interests,” is nonsense. (I will tell some other time why)

At the same time while Mr. Tom Hicks was discussing the Rand report,  Secretary of  the Navy Mabus was reviewing the effects converting the Department of the Navy from fossil fuels to alternative fuels will have on the economy during the Clean Energy Summit. Chinara Lucas, Secretary of the Navy Public Affairs, reported the following about what Mabus said there:
 
Mabus said: "History has taught us the competition for resources has been one of the fundamental causes of war for centuries," …. "I am very pleased that the cost of these fuels continues to decrease," … "As more is produced – and as our demand signal grows, I am confident that price will continue to fall."
 
Maybus said the dependence on fossil fuel continued to produce bad results during the time of war by endangering Sailors and Marines charged with guarding convoys bringing energy to bases and machinery. He urged that the solution to this reliance and resulting war and loss of lives is the utilization of alternative fuels.

The use of cotton-seed by Marines in Sangi, Afghanistan, was also presented by Mabus as an example of alternative energy at its best. Through this pilot program, Mabus said Marines have reduced the amount of fossil fuel they use by 20 percent. As a consequence, Marines utilize fuel convoys less. "If this program can be expanded, it has the potential to achieve monetary savings," said Mabus. (Well, I am sure he didn’t say how much less money, and how many less convoys)

Again, at the same time (25 January) Mary Rosenthal, Executive Director of Algal Biomass Organization released a statement saying “the report is likely based on outdated information. In our opinion, basing sweeping policy recommendations on such data is misguided if not reckless. The positioning of the entire US algae industry as a “research topic” is patently false. ….. It is unclear to us whether or not any actual “green” CTL fuels have been produced or tested. We believe algae commercialization is far closer than RAND suggests.”
Steve LeVine wrote on 26 January 2011 (Isn't reducing soldier casualties a military priority?) about the Rand report, After talking to the author of the Rand report, James Bartis, he reports that “Bartis's report is misleading by omission. His report focuses solely on non-fossil fuels, as Congress requested in a 2009 appropriations bill, and leaves out alternative energy such as solar and fuel cells.”  LeVine argues that Bartis “simply laid out what we all know -- that biofuels may never be more economical than oil, and many of them will probably never be produced in commercial volumes.”
I am carefully reading the Rand report. In a separate post I will only focus on it, not who said what about it.
Interesting coincidence with the Rand report that I had concluded my previous post (Going Green and Greenbacks, posted on 18 January) with the following sentence: The US military must make the choice between "going green for greenbacks" and "going green without extra greenbacks".

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Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Navy's Great Green Fleet

Oil was first tested in the U.S. Navy on small ships. USS Palos, a tug in Boston Navy Yard, was the first U.S. Navy ship to test this type of fuel. As a coal burner, Palos did eight knots but when converted to oil it did over 14. This successful test led to the testing of oil on larger ships. In January 1909 the USS Cheyenne (formally USS Wyoming) became the first large ship to use oil. Another Navy site says that the first oil-burning American destroyer, USS Paulding was commissioned in September 1910, and by 1911 the USS Nevada-class battleship was planned for solely oil as fuel.

In 1912 the Navy's first two oil-burning battleships USS Nevada (BB-36) and USS Oklahoma (BB-37) were laid down, and were commissioned in 1916. A decade later, USS Cheyenne (Wyoming) was modernized (in 1927), exchanging her coal-fired boilers for new oil-burning types, i.e., Converted from a coal burner to an oil burner. (can anyone help me on the true order in this story?)

Oil meant tactical advantage. As Secretary of Navy says it allowed ships to stay at sea longer, replenish themselves underway from oilers rather than import from coal bunkers, and oil reduced the need for ships to maintain huge divisions of stokers.

Now, from 1909 let me fast forward to 2009. The USA Navy still runs on oil, consuming over 1.3 billion gallons (or about 85,000 barrels per day), and I don’t see any escape from using it. But top US military officials have a different opinion. They think (or maybe even believe) that the so-called Great Green Fleet can become a reality by 2016. Yes, by 2016!

Before documenting the concept let us have a look at The Road to a Greener Navy: 10 Facts on the Navy’s Quest for Alternative Fuels:

1. The Department of Navy consumes 1.3 billion gallons of fuel per year and is the second largest consumer of fuel in the Department of the Defense (US Air Force is 1st, Army is 3rd).

2. Every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil increases Navy fuel costs by almost $300 million.

3. The Navy has set aggressive goals to reduce its reliance on oil, including a 10% annual increase in alternative fuels use by base support vehicles and equipment.

4. Over 3,000 Electric and Natural Gas vehicles are currently in use on Navy bases. Electric and Natural Gas vehicles might be the most efficient land-based alternative energy solution since they require no conversion from the form in which they are produced or mined and are naturally transportable.

5. Alternatives to petroleum-based fuel are endless. Pond scum (algae), non-food crops, biomass, wastes and CO2 are among the many energy sources currently under study.

6. Algae fields can produce 6,000 gallons of oil per acre. A land area of 500 square miles (or 2 times the size of Washington, D.C.) could yield enough oil to meet all of the Navy’s annual fuel needs. In comparison, US oilfields currently occupy 40,000 square miles.

7. Biofuels derived from algae and the oilseeds of the Camelina sativa plant will be used in the Navy’s “Green” Hornet and “Green” Ship initiatives.

8. More than 200,000 gallons of algae- and camelina-based fuel will be delivered to the Navy for test and evaluation. These sources will be the first liquid alternatives to petroleum to be certified for future use.

9. The first Navy aircraft engine to run on bio-fuel was successfully tested in October 2009 at the Naval Air Warfare Center Patuxent River, Md.

10. First flight of the Navy’s F/A-18 “Green” Hornet will take flight in the spring of 2010. The camelina-based biofuel will be blended in a 50-50 mix with standard, petroleum-based JP-5 jet fuel

Like all the other US military services, Department of Navy is also very much fascinated with the word “green”. There are many ongoing initiatives and research. (see my previous post Navy Incentives to save fuel). Some are well grounded, some are good examples and some are interesting. For instance in this year’s Secretary of Navy Awards (SECNAV Awards Recognize Energy, Water Efficiency) we learn that Naval Base Kitsap (Bremerton, Wash.) maintains an energy waste hotline, and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar (San Diego, Calif.) was selected as the pilot location under the DoD/Department of Energy Joint Venture Toward Net Zero Energy Installations.

Now let me focus on the Remarks by the Navy Secretary Ray Mabus at the Navy Energy Forum on 14 October 2009 in McLean, Va. (see also other presentation) in which he announced five energy targets the Navy will meet over the course of the next decade. His bold, aggressive and ambitious Green Goals given below are aimed at enhancing the strategic, tactical and operational capabilities of the Navy and Marine Corps along with enhancing environmental stewardship.

Here are the Green Goals of Mabus, followed by my comments in parentheses:

“First: we are going to change the way the Navy and Marine Corps awards contracts. The lifetime energy cost of a building or a system, and the fully burdened cost of fuel in powering those, will be a mandatory evaluation factor used when awarding contracts. We are going to hold industry contractually accountable for meeting energy targets and system efficiency requirements. And we’re going to do more. We will also use the overall energy efficiency and the energy footprint of a competing company as an additional factor in acquisition decisions. We want industry to partner with us and take steps not just to provide us with more energy efficient products, but to produce those products in energy efficient ways. “

(SK: Reshaping the Navy’s approach to awarding shipbuilding and weapons contracts by adding a mandatory evaluation factor for lifetime energy consumption costs and the fully burdened cost of energy is a very good initiative. In fact this is not new. Congress had already asked for it. What new is contractors’ carbon footprint. Let be realistic. Imagine that extra criteria in USAF KC-X acquisition hole without a bottom)

“Second: The Navy will demonstrate in local operations by 2012 a Green Strike Group composed of nuclear vessels and ships powered by biofuel. And by 2016, we will sail that Strike Group as aOil was first tested in the U.S. Navy on small ships. USS Palos, a tug in Boston Navy Yard, was the first U.S. Navy ship to test this type of fuel. As a coal burner, Palos did eight knots but when converted to oil it did over 14. This successful test led to the testing of oil on larger ships. In January 1909 the USS Cheyenne (formally USS Wyoming) became the first large ship to use oil. Another Navy site says that the first oil-burning American destroyer, USS Paulding was commissioned in September 1910, and by 1911 the USS Nevada-class battleship was planned for solely oil as fuel.

(SK: Amen! Mabus acknowledged that biofuel prices are high, but he believes that the prices will go down as biofuel production increases and that the military’s shift to greater biofuel use will incentivize more biofuel production. To fill the 450,000 gallon fuel tank on the Navy’s DDG-51 destroyer today costs $643,000. Last summer it cost $1.8 million to fill the destroyer’s tanks when oil prices soared above $100 per barrel. Imagine to fill it with expensive biofuels. And also imagine extra space a destroyer will need for storage. Note that 1 gallon of biofuel has less heat content that one gallon of traditional oil.)

“Third: the Department of the Navy will by 2015 reduce petroleum use in our 50,000 strong commercial fleet in half - by 50 percent. We’ll do this by replacing our current fleet, as they go out of service, with a new composite fleet of flex fuel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and neighborhood electric vehicles. Moving to biofuels and electric vehicles will benefit the local communities where our bases are located and will spur adoption of similar vehicles in those neighborhoods.” (SK: No way) [1]

“Fourth: the Department of the Navy will by 2020 produce at least half of our shore-based energy requirements on our installations from alternative sources. We will boost our usage of renewable energy and in some cases we will supply power to the grid from solar, wind, ocean, or geothermal sources generated by the base. We’re already doing this at China Lake, where our on-base systems generate 20 times the load of the base.”

(SK: To achieve this target is somewhere between very difficult and impossible. This target is achievable if the words “at least” are replaced by “at most”, and the word “CONUS” is added somewhere, and if the word “energy” is replaced by “power”. The word energy as he uses includes natural gas and oil)

“Lastly, and maybe most importantly, I am asking all of us to meet a very ambitious goal. Today, about 17 percent of our total energy consumption comes from alternative sources. By 2020, half of our total energy consumption for ships, aircraft, tanks, vehicles, and shore installations will come from alternative sources. Right now I’m told 40 percent is a more realistic goal and even that remains difficult because of the cost and logistics.” (SK: my comment above applies here too)

Mabus adds that the Navy is “placing hybrid electric systems like that on Makin Island on 12 DDGs, and we’re going to save almost $1 million per ship per year….. [the new anti-fouling coating that’s being tested in the fleet] will save up to $180,000 per year per ship in fuel costs due to reduced drag from barnacles and marine growth. Once implemented fleet-wide, in combination with other measures like installation of stern flaps on our amphibious ships that increase fuel efficiency, an aggressive energy conservation program with strong incentives and the use of new voyage planning tools, for an additional investment of only $550 million, we’ll get about $400 million savings per year……. All told, we have the opportunity to improve our energy generation ashore over the next ten years by almost 370 MW, enough energy to power 250,000 homes – or all the households in a city the size of Boston.”

Now let me look at the Green Hornet issue.

In October 2009 Navy engineers at Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md. conducted the initial tests on an F404 F/A-18 jet engine to determine if it could run on JP-5 derived from a renewable resource. (Initial test proves Navy’s F/A-18 Hornet can fly on ‘green fuel’) The aim is to come up with a biofuel powered jet engine for a new F/A-18, so-called “Green Hornet”. The fuel used in the tests was created from the camelina plant, which is in the same family of plants as the mustard seed and rapeseed. It needs little water or nitrogen to flourish and can be grown on marginal agricultural soil. Why camelina? Because it does not compete with food crops.

More tests will occur in the December-January timeframe on the F414, the engine for the Super Hornet. The first actual flight fueled with a renewable fuel blended with the current JP-5 is expected next spring.

According to Secretary Manus, improvements to the traditionally fueled F/A-18 engines will increase the fuel efficiency of each aircraft by three percent, allowing the planes to fly further on the same tank of fuel and potentially save 127,000 barrels of fuel per plane per year. (Navy Launches Green Hornet)

According to Mabus Green Hornet “is going to fly within 3 years. And although the cost of the fuel used in that engine is high right now – it is still cheaper than putting gas into a generator on the battlefield in Afghanistan. And that cost will fall as the scale of production is increased. At the same time, improvements to F/A-18 engines that will be in service by 2015 will improve the efficiency of the aircraft by 3 percent. The improvements will not only allow the aircraft to fly longer, faster, or farther on the same tank, but could save us 127,000 barrels of fuel per year, amounting to $15 million for the Fleet per year at today's fuel prices.”

The F/A-18 Strike Fighter Program Office at the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) has already been working on the development of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet in order to make the original Hornets environmentally friendly. Super Hornet entered the fleet in 1999. They were also dubbing it Green Hornet. But the word “Green” meant less nitrogen oxides emissions, carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons, and fuel consumption without compromising engine performance attributes such as thrust, weight, and cost. (see Currents, Spring 2007 issue). The Mabus’ Green is adding biofuels into it.
In sum, Green Goals of Mabus are certainly extremely ambitious. In fact, many are on the border of wishful thinking. Easier said than done. What would be the total cost to of the Great Green Fleet? What is the replacement cost of conventional vehicles with hybrids. Right, technology might save us. But not in 6 years time.

Mr. Mabus says he is not asking the impossible. If his goals are not impossible I really wonder what impossible is. He further adds that “I am asking you to make the future a more secure and better place.” What all his goals have to do with more secure and better place? And for whom?
If the military wants to go green it should really mean it by reducing waste, all kind. Otherwise, the word "green" will continue to be understood as the color of the greenback.

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[1] A news piece from Navytimes on 16 October 2009 (SecNav: Cut half of oil use by 2020) reported that the so-called green fleet’s carrier and submarines would be nuclear powered. Its surface escorts would either have hybrid power plants or use alternative bio-fuel in their original engine rooms. And the aircraft in the strike group, including fighter jets and helicopters, would burn only alternative fuel.

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