Climate Change National Security Fuzz

Global climate change presents a serious national security threat which could impact Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations and heighten global tensions due to large-scale migrations, loss of land and natural resources, increased border tensions, the spread of disease and conflicts over food and water, according to a study released (on April 16, 2007) by Center for Naval Analysis.

The study, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” explores ways projected climate change is a threat multiplier in already fragile regions, exacerbating conditions that lead to failed states — the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. The purpose of the study is “to examine the national security consequences of climate change.” It is undertaken “for the primary purpose of presenting the problem and identifying first-order solutions.”

The report complied by CNA researchers under the direction and review of eleven retired three-star and four-star admirals and generals. And this fact is enough to carry the report to headlines in mainstream media.

Coincidence or not, in March 2007, another report from the Global Business Network also concluded that rising seas and more powerful storms could eventually generate unrest as crowded regions become less habitable. An earlier version entitled "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security," was prepared for the Department of Defense, in October 2003.

More or less at the same time, Strategic Studies Institute of the Army War College, on March 30-31 2007 organized a colloquium on "National Security Implications of Global Climate Change." The goal of this colloquium according to the site is to develop and strengthen the understanding of U.S. military and defense Leaders responsible for reacting to national security consequences of Global Climate Change and for forming US Military Security Strategy in the 21st Century.

Just a coincidence!

Meanwhile, U.S. Senators Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE) recently introduced a bill (28 March 2007), the Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act, which asked the intelligence community to provide a National Intelligence Estimate[1] (NIE) of the risks posed by global climate change for countries or regions that are of particular economic or military significance to the United States or that are at serious risk of humanitarian suffering. This NIE will look beyond the short-term and require the intelligence community to analyze these issues in the context of the next thirty years and will assess the political, social, agricultural, and economic challenges for countries and their likely impact.

"For years, too many of us have viewed global warming as simply an environmental or economic issue. We now need to consider it as a security concern,…Many of the most severe effects of global warming are expected in regions where fragile governments are least capable of responding to them. Failing to recognize and plan for the geopolitical consequences of global warming would be a serious mistake. This intelligence assessment will guide policymakers in protecting our national security and averting potential international crises," says Senator Durbin on his website.

But read the following paragraph and then compare it with the CNA report.

“Environmental changes caused by global warming represent a potential threat multiplier for instability around the world. Scarce water, for example, may exacerbate conflict along economic, ethnic, or sectarian divisions. Water shortages, food insecurity, or flooding - all of which may occur as a result of rising global temperatures - could also displace people, forcing them to migrate.”

Almost identical! OK. Coincidence!

Then I read yesterday ( 17 April 2007) an article entitled Global warming an issue for UN Security Council in the NewScientist website which said “On the eve of the first United Nations Security Council debate on global warming, the UK foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, warned US businesses to invest in carbon-free technology or lose out to Europeans…..The theme of the open debate, a UK initiative, is energy, security and climate. The UK currently holds the Security Council presidency…. the UK called to convince reluctant UN members that climate changes poses a threat to international security.”

Himmm, another coincidence!

Was there anything extraordinarily new in those reports? No! All the findings are in fact not any different from the ones in Worldwatch Institute’s Global Security Brief #3: “Climate Change Poses Greater Security Threat than Terrorism” in April 1, 2005. No, it is not an April’s fool!

Why then so many coincidences in one month time frame? O.K. coincidences can happen. Or we don’t see the real agenda behind these new developments?

It is very unfortunate that none of the reports mentioned above can see that the real threat to national/global security is POVERTY. period.

If discrepacy between have's and have not's continue to increase we will see neither the effects of climate change nor peak oil. It is Poverty that is the greatest danger to humanity, not climate change or Peak Oil.


Footnote:
[1] A National Intelligence Estimate is the U.S. intelligence community's most authoritative, top-of-the-line written judgment on a specific national security issue. Representatives from key U.S. intelligence agencies participate in writing an estimate, which is then submitted to the president and other policy-makers. [read more]

Tags: Department of Defense, Climate Change, National Security

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